Monday, October 13, 2008

Could Obama's Lead Be Deceiving ??

Because I am a Los Angeles native I am familiar with wat politicians have labeled the "Bradley Effect". The idea is coined after Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley, an African American who ran for governor in the early 1980's. Although the polls suggested that Bradley would be the run away victor, he lost to republican George Deukmejian.
The premise is this; the polls were inacurate because many voters who did not want to appear racist claimed they would choose Bradley. Obiviously, many of those who said they would vote for Bradley did not.
So does Obama have much to worry about? One can only conclude after analyzing the differences between now and then, how strongly the people feel about the issues that they need addresses, which could negate the subject of race, and the significance of the nomination under discussion.
Personally, I feel that America has progressed considerably since the 1980's. Although race is an issue, people are a lot more willing today to look beyond that as oppose to 20 plus years ago. This election has seen the highest number of young voters age 18-25 registered to vote in recent history. These young voters are of a completely different generation, one that has different views and mindsets of generations in the past, and a higher acceptance level for things that are unfamiliar. This age demographic will make a difference in this election. Combined with idea of the country in bad need of change race could have a minimal effect on this election.
Under the Bush administration the country has experienced a rough 8 years. Citizens white, black, republican, or democrat understand that the nation is in need of reform. Thus, Americans gave their ears open to anyone who can bring about the best change. Although McCain has tried to seperate himself from Bush and his ideas, Many Americans refer to him as "McBush", and exclaim that he would his term would be another four years of George Bush. Because of the unfortunate state that our country is in, the average person's focus is not race, but the candidate can help restore our nation.
Governor is an important position but it certainly does not compare to the president of the United States. I feel that Obama does not have to worry about the Bradley Effect because the nation has taken notice of what has occured over the last eight years. The nation is seeking someone who can reconcile our issues, the case is much more severe than governor.
Douglas Wilder suggested on CNN that this election could experience a reverse Bradley effect, and Obama's lead could in fact be larger than polls show, because they do not count the possible republicans who may vote for Obama.
The Bradley effect is something I considered when Obama was up for the Democratic nomination against Clinton. I was fearful that his small margin in actuality was a deficit. But in the case of the election, I do not feel the Bradley effect will cost Obama to much leverage, if any at all ....

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/13/obama.bradley.effect/index.html

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